Status: Finalised Material from:
Picture
1. Impact
On 20 June the temperature record north of the Arctic circle was broken in Verkhoyansk in Russia (67.6N, 133.4E, station 24266), when they reported 38C.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analysis of z500 and T850 from 20 June 00UTC.
The map below shows the maximum reported temperature from SYNOP observations (not the reported maximum temperature) aggregated on 20 June.
The plot below shows shortest available forecast for maximum 2-metre temperature on 20 June.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below shows the observation statistics for 2-metre temperature for the station 24266 from 15 June to 25 June.
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows the forecast from 18 June for 2-metre temperature in a 1x1 degree box around Verhojansk for HRES (red), ENS (blue) and observations (black).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI for 2-metre maximum temperature on 20 June.
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecast of maximum 2-metre temperature averaged in a 1x1 degree around Verkhoyansk on 20 June. HRES (red dot), ENS (blue box-and-whisker), model climate (red box-and-whisker) and the observation from Verkhoyansk.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly average temperature for 15-22 June.
