Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
Probabilities of exceeding >80 mm at different lead times: 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h, 120h, 144h, 168h
EFI for 24-h Precipitation, valid on day 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 10-15
EFI for Water vapour flux, valid on day 4, 7 and 10-15
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Extended range anomaly for precipitation, valid for the week 19-25 October and forecast for week 1, 1.5, 2 and 2.5
3.5 Comparison with other centres
HRES and HARMONIE-AROME maximum wind gusts for T+48h compared to observations
HRES and HARMONIE-AROME 24- precipitation for T+48h compared to observations
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
EFAS forecast on 19th October 2020 at 00 UTC run.
