Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
The tropical cyclone Tauktae made landfall on the coasts of north-western India on 18 May.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57139989
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 17 May 00UTC (first plot) to 10 May 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 17 May 12UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation on 18 May from forecasts with different initial times.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly tropical cyclone activity for 17-23 May in extended-range forecasts. A signal of increased risk for a tropical cyclone in north-western Indian Ocean was captured 4 weeks in advance. This was probably related to a strong MJO event.
