Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 24-26 October the central Mediterranean was hit by extreme rainfall. For example, Sicily and Calabria in Italy was affected with stations reporting more than 400 mm in 72h.
Report about the event (in Italtian):
http://www.arpacal.it/allegati/meteopluviometrico_ottobre%202021.pdf
Floodlist item:
https://floodlist.com/africa/algeria-tunisia-italy-medicane-floods-october-2021
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) from 21 October 00UTC to 25 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 23 October 00UTC to 27 October 00UTC every 12h.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 24 October 00UTC - 27 October 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black box marks southern Calabria.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 14 October, from different initial times.
