Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando
1. Impact
On 29-30 January the cyclone Malik passed the northern European, affecting several countries along its path from UK in the west to the Baltic States in the east. In UK 2 people were killed by falling trees (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60188454). The cyclone was followed on 30 January by storm Corrie that hit Scotland.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 29 January 12UTC to 31 January 00UTC, every 12 hour. The cyclone was a large-scale feature with the centre moving from Iceland, via the central Norway to the northern Baltic. The strongest wind gusts were over Scotland, southern Norway, Denmark, northern Germany, southern Sweden. Later the eastern part of Sweden (around Stockholm) was hit.
Information about observations in Sweden: https://www.smhi.se/bloggar/vaderleken-2-3336/malik-arets-forsta-namngivna-storm-1.179810 (in Swedish)
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 29 January 12UTC - 30 January 12UTC, from different initial dates (all 00UTC except the first forecast plot). There is a sign that the gusts were underestimated over Denamk and northern Germany on the short-range forecasts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts for 29 January, from different initial times. A strong signal for extreme winds were picked up on 24 January, 5-6 days in advance.
The plots below show EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts for 30 January, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour maximum wind gust valid 29 January 12UTC - 30 January 12UTC for Aalborg, Denmark. Mean of obs - green, HRES –red, ENS - blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. The black square marks the ensemble/climate median and diamond ensemble/climate mean.
The plots below shows cyclonic features on 30 January 00UTC, with the colour marking the maximum wind at 1 km height within 600 km from the centre of the cyclone.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good medium-range prediction