Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti, Ivan


1. Impact

On 9 February  the cyclone Helios hit the countries around central Mediterranean, with severe rainfall. The system was named Helios, but was not considered to be a Medicane.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 7 February 00UTC to 11 February 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 6 February to 12 February 00UTC, every 24 hour.

3. Predictability


3.1 Data assimilation


3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations (first plot), analysis from concatenated 6-hour forecasts (2nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 9 February 00UTC - 10 February 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black box show the area around Malta.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 9 February, from different initial times. 

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid  9 February 00UTC - 10 February 00UTC for the box around Malta. Observation - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds.

The plots below show cyclone features coloured after the maximum rainfall within 300 km, all valid 10 February 00UTC.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material