Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus


1. Impact

In end of April 2023 the Iberian peninsula was hit by a heatwave with unseasonal temperatures. On 27 April, Cordoba hit 38.8C which was far above the previous April record for the country. During the spring, the region has also seen a deficit of precipitation.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 24 April to 28 April 00UTC, every 24 hour.

3. Predictability


3.1 Data assimilation


3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI for maximum temperature on 27 April, from different initial dates.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for maximum temperature on 27 April for 0.5 degree box around Cordoba. Observation - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. 48r1 e-suite is included in orange dot (HRES/ENS control) and purple (ENS distribution).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show 2-metre temperature anomalies for the week starting on 24 April from different initialisation dates for the extended-range forecasts.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Early signal in day 10-15 and a strong signal after from day 10 and onwards

6. Additional material