Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Seiyoung


1. Impact

The middle of July was very wet on the Korean Peninsula, and at least 40 people have died related to the weather ( On 14 July a disaster happened in Cheongju, when a river wall broke and flooded a 685 m long road tunnel, killing at least 13 people.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 12 July 00UTC to 15 July 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 11 July to 15 July 00UTC, every 24 hour.

The plot below shows an example of radar image, and precipitation totals for 14 July from KMA.

3. Predictability


3.1 Data assimilation


3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (14 July 00UTC - 15 July 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and o-suite HRES forecasts with different lead times.

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day  precipitation on 14 July from different initial dates.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (14 July 00UTC - 15 July 00UTC)   for 0.25 degree box around Cheonju. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red,  ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material