Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus , Ervin
1. Impact
On the last day of May and in the beginning of June, southern Germany was hit by extreme rainfall, that led to some river flooding.
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 48-hour rainfall on 31 May 00UTC - 2 June 00UTC in a box over southern Germany (47.5N - 48.5N, 9.5E - 11E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 29 May 00UTC to 1 June 00UTC, every 12th hour. (Add 2 June.)
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 28 May to 2 June.
Precipitation observations for 48-hour precipitation (31 May 00TUC - 2 June 00UTC) with higher density than in our database (thanks to Fatima and Ervin).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 48-hour precipitation (31 May 00UTC - 2 June 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show forecasts from DestinE.
The plots below show forecasts from AIFS.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (31 May) from different initial dates. Note that we do not have EFI available for 2-day accumulations. The box marks the region aggregated in the forecast evolution plot below.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 48-hour precipitation for southern Germany on 29 May 00UTC -2 June 00UTC.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The structure of the precipitation show similarities with the 2013 flooding: 201306 - Floods - Central Europe (but less severe)
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- ENS control and Destine was very extreme on 28 May 00UTC
- The drop in ensemble distribution at 31 May 00UTC went in the wrong direction