Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ...
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 15 October 00UTC - 18 October 00UTC in a 0.25x0.25 degree box around Mont Aiguoal, France (44.1N, 3.6E).
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 15 October 06UTC - 18 October 06UTC in a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on(44.7N, 4.1E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 13 October 00UTC to 18 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 12 October to 18 October.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added), concatenated short forecasts (second plot) for 15 October 00UTC to 18 October 00UTC.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 3-day precipitation (15-17 October).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for72-hour precipitation for the box.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
cy49r1 ENS - purple box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event