Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando, Esti, ..
1. Impact
Tropical cyclone Milton hit western Florida near Tampa on 10 October, causing more than 25 fatalities. The cyclone triggered a large number of tornadoes over Florida.
The cyclone formed in south-western Gulf of Mexico on 5 October and had a very rapid intensification on 7 October and later reached 897hPa on 8 October. It weakened before landfall and was a category 3 at that point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Milton for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 10 October 00UTC (first plot) to 2 October 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 10 October 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but of 49r1 e-suite.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone intensity (central pressure - top, maximum wind -bottom) for TC Milton for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 10 October 00UTC (first plot) to 2 October 00UTC (last plot). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but with DestinE4.4 in purple.
The plots show the same as above but for 49r1 e-suite.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good early indication of the risk for Florida
- Problem with the rapid intensification on 7 October, but the DestinE4.4 predicted a (somewhat weaker) RI in forecast from 7 October.