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The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation valid 21 December. High SOT values start to appears in the forecast from 18 December north of Sri Lanka, indicating that some members have extreme rainfall.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 24-hour rainfall on 21 December for a point north of Maankulam, which got more than 300 mm during the day. The blue box-and-whisker shows the ensemble distribution, the red dot the HRES forecast and the red box-and-whisker the climate distribution based on re-forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- HRES had large precipitation amounts locally in the region for 21 December in forecasts from 17 December and onwards.
- Focusing on one site, the probabilities for extreme rainfall was low.
- Ensemble mean in short forecasts around 20-40 mm/24h.