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The plots below show tropical cyclone strike probability on 25-28 August, in forecasts from 25 (first plot) to 22 August (last plot).
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 3 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 3 September (first plot) to 23 Augsut (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 25 March.Three main shifts in the tracks: Majority of members towards Bahamas (26 Aug), easterly path (28 August) and northward turn (31 August)
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3.4 Extended-range forecasts
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