Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49602445
2. Description of the event
An animation of infrared satellite images for the full lifetime of the cyclone can be found here (from Kimberly Wood, Mississippi State University): http://arashi.geosci.msstate.edu/images/2019Dorian.mp4
A radar loop from Bahamas can be found here (thanks to Brian McNoldy, University of Miami): http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/dorian19/Dorian_1-3Sep19_bahamas.gif
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tropical cyclone strike probability on 25-28 August, in forecasts from 25 (first plot) to 22 August (last plot).
3.4 Extended-range forecasts
Tropical storm strike probability 2-9 September in extended-range forecasts, starting from the latest forecast (2 September). The first extended-range forecast to pick up the signal was 26 August, an expected result from the medium-range plots.
Accumulated cyclone energy 2-9 September in extended-range forecasts. All forecasts from 26 August and earlier indicated less activity than normal.The signal for the activity in the Atlantic in the early forecasts originated from the south-eastern part of the basin, where Gabrielle later formed.
