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On 11-12 January central-northern parts of Sweden was hit by extreme snowfall together with strong winds. Some stations reported more than 50 cm of snow accumulation. A rare red warning was issued for the event by SMHI.
2. Description of the event
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The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 from 9 to 12 January (12UTC), every 24h.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
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The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation on 12 January (00-00UTC).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 24-hour precipitation ending on 12 January 12UTC averaged inside the box outlined in the plots above. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue boxes, median square and mean diamond) and model climate distribution (red boxes).
The plot below shows the joint probability of >10mm snowfall water eq. and >20 m/s wind gusts on the first 6 hours of 12 January in the forecast from 10 January.
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