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The series of figures above shows HRES forecasts of the maximum wind gust during the 5 December and the MSLP valid 12 UTC. The colour scale is the same as for the observations in the previous section. The first forecast is from 5 Dec 00 UTC and the following is 4 Dec 00UTC and so on (with 1 day apart). Already the forecast from 9 days before (second last panel) had a cyclone in the area, but further west than the latest forecast.
These figures snow 10-metre wind speed for Ekofisk in the North Sea(56.3N, 3.1E) and Torsminde in western Denmark (56.4N, 8.1E). The HRES forecast is in red and observations in blue. The forecast is initialised 4 December 00UTC. One interesting feature in the model, for both sites, is the large variations from hour to hour close to the peak of the wind speed.
3.3 ENS
The figures above shows the EFI for wind gusts valid on 5 December from 1 (5 Nov 00UTC), 2, 3, 4, 5 days before the event. The figures also includes the values for the 99th percentile.
Dalmatian plots of cyclonic features where the colour indicates the maximum wind speed at 850 hPa within 600 km radius. The first forecast is from 5 December 00UTC and the following are with one day apart.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
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