Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/12/02/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/12/03/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/12/04/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/12/05/sc/
1. Impact
On the 5 December the cyclone swept from Scotland, over the North Sea and hit Denmark, Germany and Sweden. Problems were caused both by the wind and the following storm surge, reaching 6 metres in Hamburg for example.
2. Description of the event
The figures above show analyses of MSLP and Eady Index from 4 December 00UTC to 6 December 00UTC, every 12th hour. The cyclone developed south of Iceland after 12 UTC on the 4 December in a confluent flow with high baroclinicity.
Satellite images (Meteosat from yr.no) from 5 December 00UTC to 21TUC, every 3 hours.
The figures above shows maximum observed wind gusts (left) and mean wind (right) during 5 December (24-hour period).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The series of figures above shows HRES forecasts of the maximum wind gust during the 5 December and the MSLP valid 12 UTC. The colour scale is the same as for the observations in the previous section. The first forecast is from 5 Dec 00 UTC and the following is 4 Dec 00UTC and so on (with 1 day apart). Already the forecast from 9 days before (second last panel) had a cyclone in the area, but further west than the latest forecast.
3.3 ENS
The figures above shows the EFI for wind gusts valid on 5 December from 1 (5 Nov 00UTC), 2, 3, 4, 5 days before the event. The figures also includes the values for the 99th percentile.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Emil (Ulli), 4 January over British Isles Summary by Ivan can be found here.
- Anatol, 3 December 1999 See Figure 1 in Buizza and Hollingsworth (2002) http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm/301-400/tm356.pdf