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Radar sequence from the Romanian Met Service for part of 14 May.
The figures above show the observed precipiation for the 14 and 15 May (06-06) and a HRES forecast.
The connection to the system giving all the rain, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plots above show the EFI for 14 May from different initial times.
The figure above show the CDF for Beograd, valid the 14 may. The observed precipitation for that day (0-0 UTC) was 112.6 mm (station 13274). The last forecast was more extreme than the earlier, but still underestimated the rain.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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