Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus Mohamed
...
, Florian
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
...
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/16/sc/
1. Impact
...
| Excerpt |
|---|
Starting on the 13 May 2014, severe rainfall hit south-eastern Europe. The event continued until the 16 May. The worst affected countries were Serbia and Bosnia - Herzegovina where the rain is said to be the worst for 120 years. Currently more than 30 people have died in land-slides and the flooding following the rain. Heavy rainfall and strong winds also affected Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring countries. |
|
On 16 May, the Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia requested assistance through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. Serbia declared a state of emergency on Thur 15 May.
The This is a list of new items on the event:
...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27459184
Warnings The figures above show warnings on Meteoalarm for the 14 and 15 May. Red warnings where issued for rainfall in Serbia, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Austria and Slovakia.
...
Gallery includeLabel soil_an sort comment title Soil moisture level 1,2,3 analysis
Radar Above is the radar sequence from the Romanian Met Service for a part of 14 May, snowing showing the persistent rainfall over Serbia and parts of Romania.
...
The figures above show the observed precipitation for the 14,15, 16 and 15 17 May (06-06) and a the HRES forecast (day 2-3). The forecast underestimated the precipitation in the worst affected areas.
The table below shows the observed precipitation for Loznica (13262, 44.3N, 19.1N), Beograd (13274, 44.9N, 20.3E) and Valjevo (13269, 44.2N, 19.5E). The precipitation is the 24-hour observed at 06UTC. The total for the 5-day period was for Loznica 219 mm, Beograd 190 mm and Valjevo 199 mm.
...
The connection to the system giving all the rain, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains with wind gusts of more than 40 m/s.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show z500 and t850 forecasts from HRES, all valid at 00UTC on 15 May. The first plot is the analysis. The large-scale cut-off low was very well predicted.
...
Gallery includeLabel msl_hres sort comment title MSLP and precipiation HRES (all valid 15 May 00UTC)
As seen above, the precipitation in the worst affected areas seems to have been underestimated.
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel efi_d5 sort comment title EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
The plots above show the EFI for a 5-day period (12-17 May for all but the last plot where the period is shiffted shifted 1 day). The signal is prsent present already from the longest forecast presented here (from 8 May) and gets stronger as the event approchesapproaches.
Gallery includeLabel efi_1d sort comment title EFI for 14 May
The plots above show the EFI for 14 May (the day with the heaviest precipitation in Serbia) from different initial times.
...
The figure above show the CDF for Beograd, valid the 14 may. The observed precipitation for that day (0-0 UTC) was 112.6 mm (station 13274). The last forecast was more extreme than the earlier, but still underestimated the rain.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Coming soon.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show CDF for 5-day precipitation 12 May 06UTC to 17 May06UTC May 06UTC for Beograd (point for 44N, 20E), for different centres obtained from the TIGGE archive. The observed value for the period was 190 mm.
...
For this point, the ECMWF forecast was generally worse than for other centres, but might got captured the signal one day earlier (8 May). We have to check wheather whether the differences can be due to difference in orography. Optimally, the diagnostics should be done for an area average.
3.6 EFAS
Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
...