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As seen above, the precipitation in the worst affected areas seems to have been underestimated.
The figures above show the precipitation verification for 14 May 06UTC - 15 May 06UTC for forecast from 12, 13 and 14 may 00UTC. Only the very last forecast captured the observed rainfall amounts.
The figures above show the precipitation verification for 15 May 06UTC - 16 May 06UTC for forecast from 13, 14 and 15 may 00UTC. Here the extreme precipitation over the orography in Austria and Slovakia was underestimated.
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel efi_d5 sort comment title EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
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Gallery includeLabel tigge_cdf_3d sort comment title TIGGE CDF for Beograd (3-day)
The plot below shows the CDF for 14 May 06UTC to 15 May 06UTC for Beograd. On this short lead time only NCEP got high precipitation amounts (108 mm was observed).
For this point, the ECMWF forecast was generally worse than for other centres, but might captured the signal one day earlier (8 May). We have to check whether the differences can be due to difference in orography. Optimally, the diagnostics should be done for an area average.
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- Good early detection of the large scale cut-off low and extreme precipitation (in EFI)
- Early response in the EFAS system
- Precipitation amounts clearly underestimated for Beograd. ECMWF worse than other centres.
- Only the very last forecast captured the amount over Beograd.
6. Additional material
Information sheet from JRC/EFAS 16 May
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