...
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/05/16/sc/
1. Impact
| Excerpt |
|---|
Between13-16 May 2014, severe rainfall hit south-eastern Europe. The worst affected countries were Serbia and Bosnia - Herzegovina where the rain is said to be the worst for 120 years. Currently more than 35 people have died in land-slides and the flooding following the rain. Heavy rainfall and strong winds also affected Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring countries. |
...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27459184
The figures above show warnings on Meteoalarm for the 14 and 15 May. Red warnings where issued for rainfall in Serbia, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Austria and Slovakia.
2. Description of the event
The figures below show the analyses of t850 and z500 (00UTC). The rainfall was caused by a cut-off low situated over south-east Europe, bringing moist winds from east, hitting the mountains on Balkan.
...
The connection to the system giving all the rain, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains with wind gusts of more than 40 m/s.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show z500 and t850 forecasts from HRES, all valid at 00UTC on 15 May. The first plot is the analysis. The large-scale cut-off low was very well predicted.
...
The figures above show the precipitation verification for 15 May 06UTC - 16 May 06UTC for forecast from 13, 14 and 15 may 00UTC. Here the extreme precipitation over the orography in Austria and Slovakia was underestimated.
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel efi_d5 sort comment title EFI 5-day (12-17 May)
...
The figure above show the CDF for Beograd, valid the 14 may. The observed precipitation for that day (0-0 UTC) was 112.6 mm (station 13274). The last forecast was more extreme than the earlier, but still underestimated the rain.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Coming soon.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show CDF for 5-day precipitation 12 May 06UTC to 17 May 06UTC for Beograd (point for 44.9N, 20.3E), for different centres obtained from the TIGGE archive. The observed value for the period was 190 mm.
...
To conclude, the results are quite mixed comparing different centres. The outstanding results are the high precipitation for 3-days from UKMO for Loznica.
3.6 EFAS
Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
...
The figures above show the modelled flow for river Sava, close to Beograd.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The flooding in central Europe 2013. Technical Memorandum soon finished about the case.
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good early detection of the large scale cut-off low and extreme precipitation (in EFI)
- Early response in the EFAS system
- Precipitation amounts clearly underestimated for Beograd. ECMWF worse than other centres.
- Only the very last forecast captured the amount over Beograd.
6. Additional material
Information sheet from JRC/EFAS 16 May
...