...
The figure below shows the 5-day accumulation (13-18 May 00UTC). For the climatology of 5-day accumulations accumulations (bottom, left) unfortunately no station appears over Serbia but I found some stations in Austria, Slovakia, Poland and Romania where 5-day totals exceeded 99th percentiles of the 15-year observed climate. On the plot below you can see two examples.
...
The table below shows the observed precipitation for Loznica (13262, 44.3N, 19.1N), Beograd (13274, 44.9N, 20.3E) and , Valjevo (13269, 44.2N, 19.5E) and Tuzla (14557, 44.5N, 18.7E). The precipitation is the 24-hour observed at 06UTC. The total for the 5-day period (12 May - 17 May 00UTC) was for Loznica 219 mm, Beograd 190 mm and , Valjevo 199 mm and Tuzla 249 mm.
| Loznica | Beograd | Valjevo | Tuzla | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 May | 50 | 21 | 38 | 49 |
| 15 May | 110 | 108 | 108 | 95 |
| 16 May | 53 | 45 | 44 | 90 |
| 17 May | 6 | 16 | 3 | 15 |
| 18 May | 0 | 0 | 3 |
...
| 0 |
The connection to the system giving all the raincyclone, high wind gusts where measured, especially in the Slovakian mountains with wind gusts of more than 40 m/s. The plot below shows the maximum observed wind gusts for the 15 May.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
...