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ECMWF started to pick up a signal on 6 May together with UKMO. UKMO had a drop in the probabilities the day after, connected to a bad forecast on the European scale. One thing worth to mention is that all but one ECMWF HRES, control and T319 forecasts (as seen in HRES section) had the event from 8 May 00UTC and onwards (total 30 forecasts, 97% probability), but the ensemble probabilities for all but the last ensemble (13 May 00UTC) had probabilities below 80%. It could be interesting to investigate if it could be diagnosed further.
The plots below show the CDFs for the TIGGE forecasts from the plots above (3-day precipiation for the area).
Gallery includeLabel cdf_3d_area sort comment title 3-day precipitation for area
3.6 EFAS
Gallery includeLabel efas_severe sort comment title EFAS
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