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The month before the event had been wet.The figure below shows the accumulated precipitation in short (12-36h) control forecasts from 1 March to 27 May (black line) inside the box (44-45N,.18-20E, see below). The grey line represents the mean of the model climate for this area. For the second half of April and beginning of May more than 200 mm where accumulated. The rainfall causing the flood then appeared in mid May, and the ground was already saturated in the area.
The figures below show the analysis of soil moisture level 1,2,3 with 3 days apart, starting from 10 May. Here one can see that the ground was very wet already before the rainfall.
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