Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The storm Daniel crossed the Mediterranean after hitting Greece (202309 - Rainfall - Daniel (Greece, Bulgaria)) and gave torrential rainfall over Libya. It resulted in a burst dam near Dernah, leading to >2000 deaths>4000 deaths (could be 10000-20000).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66793306
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 2 September 00UTC to 7 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
In absence of precipitation observations in the region on GTS, the plot below shows a map constructed from media reports.
3. Predictability
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 13 September 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out.
The plot below shows the same as above but for 4.4km DestinE forecasts.
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