Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin


1. Impact

The storm Daniel crossed the Mediterranean after hitting Greece (202309 - Rainfall - Daniel (Greece, Bulgaria)) and gave torrential rainfall over Libya. It resulted in a burst dam near Dernah, leading to >4000 deaths (could be 10000-20000).

From MedCyclones:

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 2 September 00UTC to 7 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.

In absence of precipitation observations in the region on GTS, the plot below shows a map constructed from media reports.

3. Predictability


3.1 Data assimilation


3.2 HRES

The plots below show 72-hour precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 13 September 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.

The plot below shows the same as above but for 4.4km DestinE forecasts.

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 3 September 00UTC)  from different initial dates.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 13 September 00UTC) for land points inside a 0.5x0.5 box  centred on Darna in Libya. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red,  Destine4.4 - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material