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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation(2 November 00UTC - 3 November 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times, focus on Tuscany, Italy. The observation plot will be updated once we have the HDOBS from Italy.
The plot below shows the same forecasts as above but for DestinE4.4km runs.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts (2 November) from different initial dates.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (2 November) inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on 43.9N, 11.1E in northern Tuscany, Italy. Observation - green hourglass (to be added once we have HDOBS), concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, HRES–red, DEstniE4.4km - purple dot, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts (to be added).
The plot below shows the the forecast evolution plot for maximum significant wave height based on 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC on 2 November inside a 0.25x0.25 box around Les Pierres Noires off the coast of Brittany. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts. Below is also the map of the waves based on the analyses included, with the analysed box outliined.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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- Good early predictions of the extreme winds over Brittany