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2. Description of the event
On this evaluation we will focus on the maximum wind gusts 31 January 12UTC - 1 February 12UTC and mean wind at 00UTC on 1 February. The main location will be 0.25x0.25 degree around Nordoyan (64.8N, 10.5E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 29 January 12UTC to 1 February 12UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts (31 January 12UTC - 1 February 12UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below 10-metre mean wind on 1 February 00UTC in observations (first plot) analysis (second plot) and 48-hour forecasts from ENS control (9km), DestinE 4.4 km, AIFS, PanguWeather and Graphcast.
3.3 ENS
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 10-metre mean wind at Nordoyan on 1 February 00UTC.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - pink
PanguWeather - cyan
Graphcast - grey
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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