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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 3 13 September 00UTC) from different initial dates.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 13 September 00UTC) for land points inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Darna in Libya. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, Destine4.4 - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event