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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/29/sc/
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1. Impact
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In the end of October 2014 heavy rainfall affected south-western Norway and caused the worst flooding in the area for more than hundred years.The worst affected area was inland Bergen and around Voss. In the valley around Flåm many houses fell down in the stream as the river eroded its banks. |
Photos and a video showing the effects of the flooding can be found on the Norwegian television homepage: http://www.nrk.no/sognogfjordane/forti-husstandar-i-flam-kan-snart-fa-flytte-heim-1.12015077 (you can find the video if you scroll down)
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The plot below shows a forecast run initialised 27 Oct 00z with TC1279 (8km) resolution and cycle 41r1. Compared to HRES orographic features are more apparent and the peak in the precipitation matches the maximum from the observations.
Gallery includeLabel g7dr_24 sort comment title cy41r1 TC1279 (8 km) 24-hour precipitation 
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation over the period 26-28 October, from different initial times. Already the forecast from 20 October had increased EFI values for the actual period and the forecast from the 23 October had a very strong signal.
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