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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (29 July 12UTC - 30 July 12UTC) in concatenated 9km short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show forecasts from 49r1 e-suite (ENS control forecast).
The plots below show forecasts from DestinE.
The plots below show forecasts from AIFS.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (29 July) from different initial dates.
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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day integrated water vapour flux(29 July) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for the box outlined in the plots above.
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
DestinE4.4km 49r1 - grey dot
AIFS - cyan dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
ENS 49r1 - pink box-and-whisker
Model climate (48r1) – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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