Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the end of July 2024, the Kerala province in south-western India was hit by extreme rainfall, leading to devasting landslides killing at least 166 people. The disaster was caused by more than normal rainfall during July followed by extreme rainfall on 29-30 July.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkge0pnxy3o
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 29 July 12UTC - 30 July 12UTC in a 0.25x0.25 box centred on 11.25N, 76E.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 27 July 00UTC to 30 July 00UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (29 July) from different initial dates.
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day integrated water vapour flux(29 July) from different initial dates.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event