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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/01/02/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/01/06/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/01/07/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/01/08/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/01/09/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

On 9-10 January 3 severe storm hit north-western Europe. The first hit Scotland early on 9 January with wind gusts up to (? mph) and later Denmark and Germany. The second one (named Nina in Norway) hit the Norwegian west coast on 10 January with hurricane force on 5stations ( http://artikkel.yr.no/sa-sint-var-nina-1.12143639) and a maximum mean wind of 37 m/s on Eigerøya. A third cyclone formed (named Egon in Sweden) in lee southern Norway and caused hurricane wind gusts in southern Sweden and heavy snowfall further north.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show observed 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 9, 10 and 11 January. For the 9 January the worst affected areas were Scotland together with Denmark and Germany. On 10 January the strongest winds occurred along the Norwegian west coast. Sweden was also hit by strong wind gusts late on the 10th. On 111 January the strongest gusts were found around the Baltic sea.

The plots below show satellite images from yr.no every third hour. In the image sequence one can follow the development of the three cyclones.

The cyclones formed in connection to a strong baroclinic  zone. The plots below shows the analyses of z500 and t850 every 12th hour.200 hPa wind and MSLP analysis

The plot below show the jet steam and MSLP (in polar projection) for the same analyses as above.

The plots below show 12-hour fcforecasts of MSLP and precipitation.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

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