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On 9-10 January 3 severe storm hit north-western Europe. The first hit Scotland early on Friday 9 January with wind gusts up to (? mph) and later Denmark and Germany. The second one (named Nina in Norway) hit the Norwegian west coast on Saturday 10 January with hurricane force on 5stations ( http://artikkel.yr.no/sa-sint-var-nina-1.12143639) and a maximum mean wind of 37 m/s on Eigerøya. A third cyclone formed (named Egon in Sweden) in lee southern Norway and caused hurricane wind gusts in southern Sweden and heavy snowfall further north. The wind also led to elevated sea-levels along the Norwegian and Swedish coasts.
The evalution below is both for the Friday 9 January and Saturday 10 January.
2. Description of the event
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Friday
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts from HRES valid for 9 January.
Gallery includeLabel hres_wg_fri sort comment title 14-hour max wind gusts Friday
Saturday
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts from HRES valid for 10 January.
Gallery includeLabel hres_wg_sat sort comment title 14-hour max wind gusts Saturday
3.3 ENS
Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Friday 00z
The plots below show the cyclone feature plots for maximum wind speed at 1 km height inside a 600 km radius for 9 January 00z.
Gallery includeLabel dal_600_fri sort comment title 1 km wind 600 km Friday
Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Saturday 12z
The plots below show the cyclone feature plots for maximum wind speed at 1 km height inside a 600 km radius for 10 January 12z.
Gallery includeLabel dal_600_sat sort comment title 1 km wind 600 km Saturday
EFI Friday
The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 9 January.
Gallery includeLabel efi_wg_fri sort comment title EFI wind gusts Friday
EFI SaturdayEFI Saturday
The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 10 January.
Gallery includeLabel efi_wg_sat sort comment title EFI wind gusts Saturday
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plot below shows forecasts from different centres for probability for >25 m/s 10-metre mean wind from 6-hourly data, valid 10 January. The data are from the TIGGE archive.
Gallery includeLabel ws_10_prob25_ecmf sort comment title Prob ws>25 m/s ECMWF
Gallery includeLabel ws_10_prob25_kwbc sort comment title Prob ws>25 m/s NCEP
Gallery includeLabel ws_10_prob25_egrr sort comment title Prob ws>25 m/s UKMO
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early signal for transition to strong positive NAO
- Good predictability for the Friday storm over Scotland
- More problems for Saturday storms