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CDF for Vaxjo, Sweden valid 10 January (observed 29 m/s)
The plot below shows the ensemble forecast for 48-hour maximum wind gusts for 9-10 January inside the box 55-60N, 10-15E (Kategatt). The maximum observed gust was 40 m/s (Vaderoarna, Sweden). The forecast from 4 Jan 00z to 6 Jan 12z were for a median above 35 m/s and 90th percentiel above 40 m/s. The later forecasts got wrongly confident in lower wind gusts.
Return period forecasts
The plots below shows probabilistic forecasts and verification of a binary event defined as exceeding 2-year return period for 24-hour maximum wind gusts.
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The plot below shows the ensemble forecast of projection to regime 1 where the x-axis represents the initial time of the forecast. Forecast from 1 January and onwards had a strong positive NAO signal, especially from the 4 January and onwards.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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