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title14-hour max wind gusts Saturday


The plots below shows the error in MSLP (shades), forecast (black contours) and analysis (green contours) for the forecast issued 8 Jan 12z. As reference, the NCEP forecast is also included, which for the Saturday storm was almost perfect (not the Friday one). The plots suggests that the ECMWF developed the cyclone somewhat too far north-east.

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titleMSLP error 8 Jan 12z forecast ECMWF

 

 

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titleMSLP error 8 Jan 12z forecast NCEP

 

 



3.3 ENS


Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Friday 00z

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title1 km wind 600 km Friday

 

Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Saturday 12z

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title1 km wind 600 km Saturday

 


EFI Friday

The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 9 January.

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