...
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 15 October 00UTC - 18 October 00UTC in a 0.25x0.25 degree box around Mont Aiguoal, France (44.1N, 3.6E).
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 15 October 06UTC - 18 October 06UTC in a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on(44.7N, 4.1E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 13 October 00UTC to 18 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
...
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added), concatenated short forecasts (second plot) for 15 October 00UTC to 18 October 00UTC.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
...
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 3-day precipitation (15-17 October).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for72-hour precipitation for the box.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
cy49r1 ENS - purple box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
...