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2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event

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Definition

Wind gusts:  24-hour maximum wind gusts on 24 January for a 0.25x0.25 box around Mace Head, Sweden (53.3N, 9.9W).

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 22 January 00UTC to 25 January 00UTC, every 12th hour.

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2.3 Observations

Water-vapour satellite images from Meteosat, every 3rd hour.

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3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event (see Section 2.1 for definition)

Observations and analysis for the event


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Control forecast

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DestinE

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AIFS deterministic

Wind gusts not available for AIFS.

AIFS ensemble

Wind gusts not available for AIFS.

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI and SOT for 1-day wind gusts on 24 January

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Forecast Evolution plot for the event (see Section 2.1)

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Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS m-climate - cyan

Cyclone feature plots

The plots below show cyclone feature plots for minimum surface pressure valid 24 January 00UTC from different initial times.

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3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

 The plots below show the weekly average ensemble mean of z500 valid 20-26 December.

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3.5 Comparison with other centres

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