...
During the last days of June and the beginning of July a heatwave affected large parts of Western Europe and also Morocco. In Spain and Morocco, several maximum temperature records for June was broken.
The Morocco part of the event is covered on the page: 202506 - Heatwave - Morocco
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on the 3-day temperature in Frankfurt am Main on 30 June-2 July, keeping in mind that it was a lot of places that were affected. The choice of Frankfurt is to see how well the forecasting system captured the northerly extent of the event.
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 27 June to 3 July.
...
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 3-day mean temperature for Frankfurt am Main.
The signal from AIFS-single was quite exceptional, with all the single forecasts being above the 99th percentile of (IFS) model climate from 19 June and onwards.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
...
6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Exceptional signal in AIFS-single
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
...