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Material from: Linus, Mohamed


 


1. Overview

 During the last days of June and the beginning of July a heatwave affected large parts of Western Europe and also Morocco. In Spain and Morocco, several maximum temperature records for June was broken.

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

Here we will focus on the 3-day temperature in Frankfurt am Main on 30 June-2 July, keeping in mind that it was a lot of places that were affected. The choice of Frankfurt is to see how well the forecasting system captured the northerly extent of the event.

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 27 June to 3 July.

2.3 Observations


2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 3-day mean temperature for Frankfurt am Main.

Legend:

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot

ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

  The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 30 June - 6 July in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).

3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Hazard Forecasts


5. Dedicated Experiments


6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases


7. Additional material

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