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2. Description of the event
The plots below show geostationary satellite images from 24, 25 and 26 May (all 06z). Convections was present on southern Ski Lanka on all three days.
We are missing precipitation observations from Sri Lanka.The observations below are instead from ogimet.com with the first plot valid on 20 May (20May 00z- 21 May 00z) and last 31 May. The worst precipitation episode in south-eastern Sri Lanka took place on 24-26 May with 535 mm at one station.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for precipitation for 24-26 May (3 days).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the verification of precipitation anomalies in the monthly forecasts valid for the week 22-28 May. The forecasts shows enhanced precipitation in the Indian Ocean. Please note that the analysis is based on short forecasts that we found above also missed the precipitation event on southern Sri Lanka.
The plot below shows the MJO diagram from 29 May (plots from earlier forecasts would be good to include). A MJO was active in the Indian Ocean during the event.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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- The short and medium-range forecasts missed the precipitation on 24-26 May
- Some signal in monthly forecasts (connected to MJO?)
- Observations missing from Sri Lanka in our system but available on the web
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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