Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:
1. Impact
With the arrival of the summer monsoon, torrential rain triggered mudslides and devastating floods in western and southern parts of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre reported that 91 people have been killed with 110 others missing as of Friday evening local time. More than 480 homes have sustained at least partial damage with nearly 17,000 families affected.
2. Description of the event
We are missing precipitation observations from Sri Lanka.The observations below are instead from ogimet.com with the first plot valid on 20 May (20May 00z- 21 May 00z) and last 31 May. The worst precipitation episode in south-eastern Sri Lanka took place on 24-26 May with 535 mm at one station.
28 May missing
The plots below show the precipitation from HRES during the first 24 hours, as a proxy for the analysis. It is apparent that the short forecasts missed the events between 24-26 May, while it had heavy precipitation on 29-30 May, which seems to have been higher than observed.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases