Status:
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Finalised Material from: Ivan
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Gallery includeLabel snow sort name
ECMWF snow analysis (27 Oct 00UTC) and observed snow depth (27 Oct 06UTC). There is a good agreement between analysis and observations.
A rapid cyclogenesis occurred over the Ionian Sea and moved eastwards towards the Aegean Sea where the cyclone started filling. The cyclone formed over an active cold front following the dissipation of the ex-hurricane Gonzalo that hit Western Europe earlier that week. The combination of that Mediterranean cyclone and an anticyclone to the north-northeast brought very cold air for the season.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
HRES model forecast wet weather up to 5 days in advance with the very early forecasts jumping quite a lot. The HRES underestimated the heaviest precipitation in the E and especially in the SE of the country but in general produced more precipitation sense than observed in a broader area.
Gallery columns 6 includeLabel hresprecip sort comment
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HRES also gave a signal of some snow cover well in advance with more uncertainty (jumpy forecast) in the medium-range.
Gallery columns 7 includeLabel hressnow sort comment
3.3 ENS
The EFI&SOT forecast for snowfall valid for 25 October. Last two forecasts were very good at foreseeing the extreme snowfall. After that the signal is weakening very fast but it is still there up to 6 days in advance.
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efisnow sort name
efisnow | |
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The EFI&SOT for snowfall computed with an improved computational code and using a new climate that comprises 1980 values (11 members X 20 years X 5 weeks X 9runs (twice a week)).
Gallery columns 5 includeLabel efisnownew sort comment
The EFI&SOT forecast for total precipitation showed signal of wet conditions up to 5 days in advance in the most affected eastern parts of the country. Positive SOT indicates that some ensemble members forecast extreme precipitation (exceeding the 99th percentile of the model climate). Last few forecasts showed very high values of the EFI (>0.9) indicating a high risk of extreme precipitation.
Gallery columns 6 includeLabel efiprecip sort comment
The CDFs of total precipitation for Burgas, the worst affected southern coast city, showing the evolution of the ENS.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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