Status Status:Ongoing analysisFinalized Material from: Linus, Ervin, Fernando, Tim
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
Typhoon Soudelors first landfall was on Saipan on 2 August, with a major impact. On the 7 August the cyclone made landfall and caused large disruptions and a number of fatalities.
2. Description of the event
TC Soudelor formed on 30 July in northern-central tropical Pacific and was on 31 July classed as a tropical cyclone.
The plots below show precipitation observations and forecasts for the two days it affected Taiwan and southern China.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below shows the minimum pressure in the analysis (red) and best track (black). The analysis was too weak in its most intense stage but was too deep laterduring the last days before the landfall on Taiwan.
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel strike sort comment title Tropical cyclone product
Via the Tropical cyclone list we obtained a radar loop for the landfall over Taiwan. This shows a clearcut eye, which seems to disappear over Taiwan at one point before reforming on the W side, as the cyclone also uindergoes a fairly substantial S'ward deflection in its track (possibly related to the very high topography). Below we compare model ppn rates before that episode, with a radar snapshot.
To interesting features appear in the plots above. Firstly, the eye is missing from the HRES ppn simulation (despite appearing to be there in the pressure field) Secondly, the areal coverage of sig ppn rates seems to be larger in HRES than in reality, consistent with the observation from the ppn totals verification above (note that only in the corners of the radar plot are the radars too remote to provide a signal)
The above plot shows that the coldest cloud tops are indeed in the eye in HRES, which is of course wrong, but is consistent with the rainfall errors. There is a hint of an eye on the actual IR image, though it was more apparent on the radar image above. HRES also has a white 'iris' around the 'pupil', suggesting perhaps a ring of less active ascent.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the standard tropical cyclone product for several initial dates. The prediction of the landfall on Taiwan was very consistently predicted.
Gallery includeLabel strike Gallery includeLabel plume_centres sort comment title Pumes from different centresTropical cyclone product
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the strike probability maps from monthly forecasts. The path of Soudelor was well predicted a few days before the cyclogenesis.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show cyclone track plumes from different centres.
Gallery includeLabel plume_centres sort comment title Plumes from different centres
| includeLabel | plume_centres |
|---|---|
| sort | comment |
| title | Plumes from different centres |
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good track forecast
- Too weak cyclone during the landfall on Saipan
- Too strong before the landfall on Taiwan
- Strange precipitation structure in HRES
6. Additional material
- Cycle 41r2 evaluation for the Soudelor.
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