201508 - Tropical cyclone - Soudelor

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin, Fernando

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/30/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/31/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/08/03/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/08/04/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/08/05/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/08/07/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

The plot below shows the minimum pressure in the analysis (red) and best track (black). The analysis was too weak in its most intense stage but was too deep later.

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material