Status:
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Finalised Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Tim
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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On 9-10 January 3 severe cyclones hit north-western Europe. The first (named Elon -DE, Dagmar - DK) hit Scotland early on Friday 9 January with mean wind of 46 m/s and wind gusts up to 63 m/s in Cairngorm and later hit Denmark and Germany. The |
The evaluation below is both for the Friday 9 January and Saturday 10 January.
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Gallery includeLabel hres_wg_sat sort comment title 14-hour max wind gusts Saturday
The plots below shows the error in MSLP (shades), forecast (black contours) and analysis (green contours) for the forecast issued 8 Jan 12z. As reference, the NCEP forecast is also included, which for the Saturday storm was almost perfect (not the Friday one). The plots suggests that the ECMWF developed the cyclone somewhat too far north-east.
Gallery includeLabel fcerr_0812_ecmf sort comment title MSLP error 8 Jan 12z forecast ECMWF
Gallery includeLabel fcerr_0812_ncep sort comment title MSLP error 8 Jan 12z forecast NCEP
3.3 ENS
Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Friday 00z
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Gallery includeLabel dal_600_fri sort comment title 1 km wind 600 km Friday
Cyclone feature 1km wind 600 km Saturday 12z
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Gallery includeLabel dal_600_sat sort comment title 1 km wind 600 km Saturday
EFI Friday
The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 9 January.
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- Early signal for transition to strong positive NAO
- Good predictability for the Friday storm over Scotland
- More problems for Saturday storms
6. Additional material
- Presentation from Fernando FD/RD March 2015 about the 10-metre wind difference in HRES and CF during Elon.
Obs/Fc scatter plot
The figure below shows the scatter plot of observations and short forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 9 January (blue), 10 January (red) and 11 January (green). Tim found that there is a maximum in the SYNOP code (99 knot) for wind gusts, which seems to have been hit by 6 stations during this event.
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