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Comment: Confirmed.

 Status:

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Finalised Material from: Ivan

 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

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The EFI&SOT for snowfall computed with an improved computational code and using a new climate that comprises 1980 values (11 members X 20 years X 5 weeks X 9runs (twice a week)).

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The EFI&SOT forecast for total precipitation showed signal of wet conditions up to 5 days in advance in the most affected eastern parts of the country. Positive SOT indicates that some ensemble members forecast extreme precipitation (exceeding the 99th percentile of the model climate). Last few forecasts showed very high values of the EFI (>0.9) indicating a high risk of extreme precipitation.

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