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Finalised Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Tim

 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

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Excerpt

On 9-10 January 3 severe cyclones hit north-western Europe. The first (named Elon -DE, Dagmar - DK) hit Scotland early on Friday 9 January with mean wind of 46 m/s and wind gusts up to 63 m/s in Cairngorm and later hit Denmark and Germany. The

he second one (named Nina - NO and Felix -DE) hit the Norwegian west coast on Saturday 10 January with hurricane force on 5 stations and a maximum mean wind of 38 m/s on Eigerøya (gusts of 46 m/s). A third cyclone formed south of Nina in lee southern Norway (named Egon in Sweden) and caused hurricane wind gusts in southern Sweden and heavy snowfall further north. The wind also led to elevated sea-levels along the Norwegian, Danish and Swedish coasts.In Limfjorden, Denmark the sea level reached 195 cm, breaking the old record of 181 cm.
 

The evaluation below is both for the Friday 9 January and Saturday 10 January.

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  • Early signal for transition to strong positive NAO
  • Good predictability for the Friday storm over Scotland
  • More problems for Saturday storms


6. Additional material

  • Presentation from Fernando FD/RD March 2015 about the 10-metre wind difference in HRES and CF during Elon.


Obs/Fc scatter plot


The figure below shows the scatter plot of observations and short forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 9 January (blue), 10 January (red) and 11 January (green). Tim found that there is a maximum in the SYNOP code (99 knot) for wind gusts, which seems to have been hit by 6 stations during this event.

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