Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin, Tim
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The storm Daniel crossed the Mediterranean after hitting Greece (202309 - Rainfall - Daniel (Greece, Bulgaria)) and gave torrential rainfall over Libya. It resulted in a burst dam near Dernah, leading to >4000 deaths (could be 10000-20000).
This event has been referenced in an ECMWF Newsletter item here, and comprehensively discussed in this article here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66793306
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel
From MedCyclones: https://medcyclones.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MedCyclone_Daniel_v2.pdf
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 2 September 00UTC to 7 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
In absence of precipitation observations in the region on GTS, the plot below shows a map constructed from media reports.
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The plot below shows the same as above but for 4.4km DestinE forecasts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 3 13 September 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation (10 September 00UTC - 13 September 00UTC) for land points inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Darna in Libya. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, Destine4.4 - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event