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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation(2 November 00UTC - 3 November 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times, focus on Tuscany, Italy. The observation plot will be updated once we have the HDOBS from Italy. While the orographic precipitation along the coast was captured to some degree, the forecasts missed the precipitation due to a convective system crossing the peninsula.
The plot below shows the same forecasts as above but for DestinE4.4km runs.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour maximum wind gust (2 November) inside a 0.5x0.5 box around Brest, Brittany. Observation - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts.
The plots below shows EFI for 1-day precipitation (2 November) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (2 November) inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on 43.9N, 11.1E in northern Tuscany, Italy. Observation - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES–red, DEstniE4.4km - purple dot, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts.
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